Heavy rains to increase food importation – agricultural expert

The ongoing heavy rains will have significant ramifications on the nation's food system, prompting experts to warn of impending challenges and the need for proactive measures.

The Meteorological Department has warned that heavy rainfall patterns are expected to surge, potentially impacting local food production.

Joel Ochieng, a Program Leader in Agricultural Biotechnology at the University of Nairobi has said this will lead to an increase in food imports as the country seeks to supplement domestic shortages.

He underscored the likelihood of increased food importation in the coming months as a direct consequence of the relentless floods.

"With crops devastation, communities displaced, and agricultural activities hampered, the imperative for food imports has become starkly apparent.

"The government should be prepared to import food because crops have been swept away, people have been displaced and cannot do farm work. In addition,  many people may lose their jobs,” he said during an interview with the Star on Thursday.

Ochieng highlighted the looming threat of aflatoxin contamination in cereals, necessitating short-term reliance on imported food until domestic production can recover.

The contamination is likely to increase as the moisture environment especially for cereals are known to harbour or promote aflatoxin.

This is also the case where people can no longer dry their cereals well and when the storage system has been affected by the rains.

“With that wetness, mould will grow and certain species of fungus such as aspergillus (that cause aflatoxin) will emerge. The cereals should not be stored in a storage facility that is leaking or on the ground.

"There is some dampness that will come as a result and this will create mould, hence aflatoxin will be common in the coming days,” Ochieng said.

Moreover, the disruption to food exports poses a risk to the nation's balance of payments, potentially weakening the currency in the foreseeable future.

“If we export less, it means we earn less foreign exchange so it weakens the shilling,” he said.

The impacts of the March-April-May rainy season extend beyond immediate crop loss to encompass broader disruptions across the food supply chain.

From farm-level destruction of crops to logistical challenges hindering emergency food aid distribution, the repercussions are manifold.

Soil fertility and health face degradation due to leaching of nutrients and waterlogging, further compromising agricultural productivity.

“When a farmer applies fertiliser in the soil, there is an active ingredient. This is what will be leaching in the bottom layers of the soil. The rooting system of most of our crops does not go further down beyond one foot.

"When nutrients leach into the lower layers of the soil, this hinders growth of the crop. This is likely to affect soil fertility and health,” he said.

Crop development will be affected because plants require a wet but warm environment to grow.

“In this kind of situation, it is warm and cold, so crop development will be affected,” he said.

There will also be disruption of relief food to areas like North Eastern Kenya which rely on annual supplies.

“Some of these areas have been severely affected by the floods. Now emergency food cannot reach those areas and they will be in serious need in the coming days,” Ochieng said.

Movement from the farm to the market has been affected, hence food wastage is anticipated, which may result in price hikes due to low supply and high demand.

Flooding may also lead to contamination with water borne diseases, which is a food safety concern.

“The flooding water may collect pathogens and contaminate the food system. Under food safety, there is also heavy metal contamination of farms and food, resulting from broken sewage and overflowing pit latrines now contaminating river systems and farms,” he said.” 

Ochieng called for robust governmental response, emphasising the need for enhanced security measures to address potential threats to food safety and mitigate the broader socio-economic impacts.